Warren Buffetts brev till aktieägarna 2024

För några veckor sedan publicerade Warren Buffett sin senaste upplaga av sitt årliga brev till aktieägarna i Berkshire Hathaway.

Som tur är behöver man inte vara aktieägare i Berkshire för att ta del av den förträffliga tidlösa kunskap som dessa årliga brev så ofta bjuder på. Personligen tycker jag att årets aktieägarbrev var mycket bra.

Hyllning till Charlie Munger

Warren Buffett inleder aktieägarbrevet med att dedikera den första sidan till sin långväga parhäst och vän Charlie Munger. Charlie Munger som tyvärr avled den 28 november 2023. Buffett skriver bland annat att det inte var förrän 1959, när han var 35 år, som han för första gången träffade Munger. Tre år senare bestämde sig Munger för att starta upp sin egen förvaltningsverksamhet.

År 1965 gav Munger följande råd till Buffett: ”Forget about ever buying another company like Berkshire. But now that you control Berkshire, add to it wonderful businesses purchased at fair prices and give up buying fair businesses at wonderful prices”.

Vidare skriver Buffett också att “Charlie was the ”architect” of the present Berkshire, and I acted as the “general contractor” to carry out the day-by-day construction of his vision”. Han skriver också att han såg relationen med Munger som en storebrors- eller fadersrelation.

Sämre utveckling än index 2023…

År 2023 levererade Berkshire-aktien en avkastning på 15,8%, vilket är klart lägre än S&P 500 (inklusive utdelningar) som mäktade med en avkastning på 26,3%. Under tidsperioden 1965-2023 utklassar dock Berkshire jämförelseindex, där man har avkastat 19,8% i snitt per år (10,2% för index).

Till aktieägarna i Berkshire uppger Buffett att: ”We believe they (= aktieägarna) are entitled to hear every year both the good and bad news, delivered directly from their CEO and not from an investor-relations officer or communication consultant forever serving up optimism and syrupy mush”.

Gällande Berkshires underliggande verksamhetsutveckling skriver Buffett: “The primary difference between the mandated figures and the ones Berkshire prefers is that we exclude unrealized capital gains or losses that at times can exceed $5 billion a day. Make no mistake about the significance of capital gains: I expect them to be a very important component of Berkshire’s value accretion during the decades ahead”.

…och utmanande att prestera enastående tillväxt framöver

I takt med att Berkshire har växt sig större och större under årens lopp, har också förutsättningarna att bibehålla den fantastiska utvecklingen minskat. Buffett skriver i aktieägarbrevet: “Doubling our huge base is simply not possible within, say, a five-year period”.

“There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over by us and by others. Some we can value; some we can’t. Outside the U.S., there are essentially no candidates that are meaningful options for capital deployment at Berkshire. All in all, we have no possibility of eye-popping performance”.

Trots att tillväxtförutsättningarna inte är lika ljusa som de många gånger varit historiskt räknar Buffett ändå med en solid utveckling:

“Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital. Anything beyond “slightly better”, though is wishful thinking”.

“One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change; Never risk permanent loss of capital”.

Ytterligare tänkvärd klokskap:

• America has been a terrific country for investors. All they have needed to do is sit quietly, listening to no one. As Ben Graham taught me, “In the short run the market acts as a voting machine; in the long run it becomes a weighing machine”
• We want to own either all or a portion of businesses that enjoy good economics that are fundamental and enduring. Within capitalism, some businesses will flourish for a very long time while others will prove to be sinkholes. It’s harder than you would think to predict which will be the winners and losers
• We particularly favor the rare enterprise that can deploy additional capital at high returns in the future. Owning only one of these companies – and simply sitting tight – can deliver wealth almost beyond measure
• Never deal with a rascal under the expectation that you can prevent him from cheating you. People are not that easy to read. Sincerity and empathy can easily be faked
• If you believe that American investors are now more stable than in the past, think back to September 2008. Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitate instant worldwide paralysis
• Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than they did when I was young
• Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes
• Berkshire is not big on newcomers. Both Coca-Cola and American Express tried expanding into unrelated areas over the years and both found little success in these attempts. But each was hugely successful in its base business
• All stock repurchases should be price-dependent. What is sensible at a discount to business-value becomes stupid if done at a premium
• When you find a truly wonderful business, stick with it. Patience pays, and one wonderful business can offset the many mediocre decisions that are inevitable